latetotheparty


Gov. Huckabee, whistling in the dark
August 7, 2006, 1:02 pm
Filed under: candidates/campaigns/elections, handlers

One of my operating principles is that political people are prisoners of their experience (everybody is when you think about it). Over the weekend, Gov. Mike Huckabee (R-AR) defaulted to a standard argument about congressional races when talking about this year’s congressional races in an interview with The Note: (Scroll down a ways, no permalink)

“This is a typical situation where people are saying, ‘I’m really mad at Congress, I’m really mad at the Republicans, but my guy – he’s ok.’ I’m seeing that at the level of governor and even at the level of members of Congress. And, so, yes if you ask the generic ballot test question. . . Republicans are certainly not polling at the top of their game. And that’s a very charitable way of putting it. . . If you look at poll numbers within the state, you don’t see that incumbents are in serious trouble because they’re Republican,” said Gov. Huckabee.”

That’s the usual calculus the Beltway types use– “They hate Congress, but love their Congressmember'” Devil you know, and all that.

Except.

NPR recently fielded a uniquely-designed poll that gets out from under the generic ballot and enables asking about specific candidate names. By polling only those in the top 50 most competitive districts (using random digit dialing), they were able to ask BOTH the generic D-vs-R congressional question (for control purposes) and ALSO ask a specific D Candidate Name-vs-R Candidate Name question.

This structure gets out from under phoning into all 435 house districts– which include all the safe seats– and focusses only on the competitive races which will determine control of the House.

THOSE results showed a 6-pt lead for the D candidate overall, and in the 23 “top tier” MOST competitive districts out of the 50, Dem candidates showed a 10-pt lead.

Mystery Pollster did some further crunching using the NPR data, comparing to past performance in thse seats, and says:

“Republicans won 55% of the vote cast in these districts in 2004 and 58% of the votes cast their in 2002, but the Republican candidates are currently preferred by only 43% of the voters in the NPR survey.”

Mystery Pollster’s full analysis is here, with links to the NPR news story and the original pollster’s report…

Pssst– don’t anyone tell Huckabee. (And maybe knock him down a few notches in your 08 Republican nomination pool?)

[ this post filed under ‘handlers’ since pollsters are handlers ]

Advertisements

Leave a Comment so far
Leave a comment



Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s



%d bloggers like this: